Packer’s Slim NFC North Chance
The Green Bay Packers find themselves in an intriguing position after 12 games and 13 weeks of the NFL season. Despite a shaky start at 2-5, their playoff hopes are still alive, with a 71 percent probability, according to The New York Times’ model. Winning the NFC North, though, is a tougher challenge, standing at…
The Green Bay Packers find themselves in an intriguing position after 12 games and 13 weeks of the NFL season. Despite a shaky start at 2-5, their playoff hopes are still alive, with a 71 percent probability, according to The New York Times’ model. Winning the NFC North, though, is a tougher challenge, standing at a mere three percent.
To boost their divisional odds, the Packers must handle their business, starting with a Monday Night Football clash against the New York Giants. A victory in this game doubles their chances to six percent. The remaining schedule looks favorable with winnable matchups against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, and a home game against the Chicago Bears.
The critical game comes in Week 17 against the Vikings, potentially their toughest challenge. However, uncertainties about the Vikings’ quarterback situation could impact their performance. The Packers’ chances to win the NFC North soar to 20 percent if they manage to win all five remaining games, finishing the season with an 11-6 record. Any loss significantly diminishes their divisional hopes, emphasizing the importance of winning out.
Turning to the Detroit Lions, their path to tying the Packers involves finishing 11-6 as well. With four seemingly winnable games and a tougher matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, the Lions must lose three of these five games to create a tie.
In the event of a tie, the NFL’s tiebreaking procedures come into play. Since the head-to-head record is split, the focus shifts to divisional performance. If both teams finish at 4-2, the tiebreaker moves to the best win-loss-tied percentage in common games.
Analyzing common games, the Lions have an 8-0 record with one game remaining against the Cowboys, while the Packers stand at 4-4 with contests against Tampa Bay, Carolina, Minnesota, and Chicago. For the tiebreaker to favor the Packers, the Lions would need to lose every game except against the Cowboys, while the Packers go 4-1, with their only loss against the Giants.
If these scenarios unfold, the tiebreaker advances to conference record, where the Lions currently hold a 6-2 record compared to the Packers’ 4-3. In a hypothetical situation where the Lions go 1-4 with a victory over the Cowboys, and the Packers follow the outlined scenario, Green Bay would finish 8-4 in the conference, securing the fourth tiebreaker.
In summary, the Packers face slim odds, but a 5-0 finish combined with specific Lions losses could pave the way for an NFC North title. In the unpredictable world of the NFL, crazier things have happened.
