Can Iga Swiatek successfully defend her year-end World No. 1 spot with in-form Aryna Sabalenka hot on her trail?

Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka on the main tour :
World No. 1 Iga Swiatek has been absent from the women’s tour following her quarterfinal exit in the US Open. She was eliminated by Jessica Pegula in New York in straight sets 6-2, 6-4.

Swiatek has had an excellent season so far, amassing 59 wins from 67 matches, including title-winning runs in Doha, Indian Wells, Madrid, Rome, and Paris. She also reached the semifinals of the Dubai Tennis Championships and the Cincinnati Open but was unable to progress to the final in those events.

While the Pole was expected to shine during the clay court season, observers were also hoping for a solid performance on grass and hardcourt. For the past three years, Swiatek hasn’t been able to move past the quarterfinals of the Wimbledon Championships and the Pole was stunned by Yulia Putintseva in the third round this year. The Kazakh defeated her in one hour and 59 minutes 3-6, 6-1, 6-2.

The 23-year-old also struggled to make a strong impression at the Australian Open. Despite confident wins over Sofia Kenin and Danielle Collins in the first two rounds, she was eliminated by Linda Noskova in the third. The 19-year-old recorded the biggest win of her career, outfoxing the Pole in three sets.

Halfway through the season, Swiatek held a strong lead in the WTA Rankings, but as we approach the final stretch, Aryna Sabalenka has been inching closer to the top spot. The Belarusian has been in scintillating form since August, garnering 22 wins from 24 matches, including title-winning runs at the Cincinnati Open, US Open, and the Wuhan Open. She also reached the quarterfinals of the China Open but came up short against Karolina Muchova in a three-set encounter.

Sabalenka captured her third Major title at the US Open this year. She only dropped one set throughout the event and edged past home favorite Jessica Pegula in the finals. She also added 1000 points to her locker by winning the Wuhan Open this month. The 26-year-old maintained her 100% record at the event and outlasted Zheng Qinwen in an entertaining final 6-3, 5-7, 6-3. Thanks to her clinical performances in the last three months, Sabalenka is now only 71 points behind Swiatek in the WTA Rankings. With only a few tournaments on the horizon, she looks likely to overcome the Pole by the end of the season.

The top two players in the world will feature next at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. While Sabalenka has been in sparkling form on tour recently, Swiatek will return to the fold after two months on the sidelines. It is highly unlikely that she hit top gear immediately, challenging for the crown among the top eight players on tour.

Moreover, Swiatek has also opted for a significant change in her set-up after parting ways with coach Tomasz Wiktorowski. She will now be assisted by Wim Fissette, who previously mentored the likes of Naomi Osaka, Victoria Azarenka, and Kim Clijsters on tour. More than 1000 points will be on offer for each participant in the WTA Finals. Swiatek will be among the favorites to win the event, but not many have been successful in stopping Sabalenka’s recent surge to the top of the WTA Rankings.
Iga Swiatek leads the head-to-head against Aryna Sabalenka 2-1 this year
Iga Swiatek in the 2024 US Open – Day 10 – Source: Getty
Iga Swiatek in the 2024 US Open – Day 10 – Source: Getty

Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka have faced each other three times on the main tour this year. Swiatek leads the head-to-head against the Belarusian 2-1.

The duo first squared off in the finals of the Madrid Open, where Swiatek showed her resilience by outlasting Sabalenka in three sets. The Pole saved three match points and conquered the Belarusian 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(7).

A few days later, they faced each other again in the finals of the Italian Open. This time around the Swiatek hardly broke a sweat during their tie and cruised past Sabalenka in 90 minutes 6-2, 6-3.

Sabalenka managed to find a measure of revenge in the semifinals of the Cincinnati Open. She outfoxed the World No. 1 in straight sets 6-3, 6-3 and went on to win the title.

Iga Swiatek clinched the WTA Finals trophy in Cancun last year but faces a more serious challenge this time around. She will be up against a talented pool of players with not a lot of game time under her belt. The Pole will still be one of the favorites at the event, which begins on November 2, 2024.