Rory McIlroy Might Not Be a Smart Bet to Win the U.S. Open After Worrying Practice Round
When Rory McIlroy finally completed the career Grand Slam with his long-awaited victory at The Masters, he was immediately tagged as the top favorite heading into the 2025 U.S. Open.
And that made perfect sense at the time.
Oakmont Country Club, the host course, is known for being brutally long and demanding pinpoint accuracy off the tee—an ideal setup for McIlroy’s skill set. Add to that his stellar U.S. Open track record, which includes six straight top-10 finishes, and it looked like he could finally play free from the pressure that haunted him at Augusta.
But now, just days before the tournament starts, there’s suddenly reason to doubt whether McIlroy will even make the cut.
During his press conference on Tuesday, McIlroy revealed a practice round he played at Oakmont last week, and it was nothing short of alarming. The Northern Irishman was 13-over-par through 16 holes before he birdied the final two to post an 11-over 81.
“Last Monday felt impossible,” McIlroy said. “I birdied the last two holes for 81. It felt pretty good. It didn’t feel like I played that bad.”
That’s a concerning statement coming from the No. 2 player in the world. If he’s not particularly upset about shooting 81—even on a course as notoriously tough as Oakmont—it raises real questions about his mindset going into the season’s third major.
Yes, he did explain that the pin placements and lightning-fast greens made the course extra difficult that day. But that’s not going to change much once the U.S. Open begins. If anything, the greens will only get faster as the tournament progresses, and the pressure will mount.
“This morning it was a little softer,” McIlroy said about another recent round. “The pins aren’t going to be on three or four percent slopes all the time. If you put it in the fairway, it’s certainly playable. But then you just have to think about leaving your ball below the hole and just trying to make as many pars as you can. You get yourself in the way of a few birdies, that’s a bonus.”
The troubling practice round isn’t the only red flag around McIlroy this week. He’s been struggling for a while now. At the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow—a course he’s dominated in the past—he turned in three over-par rounds and finished tied for 47th.
He also suffered his worst off-the-tee performance of the season after his usual driver was ruled nonconforming just before the event, forcing him to use a backup.
Things didn’t improve at the RBC Canadian Open, where he shot rounds of 71 and 78 to miss the cut by a stunning 12 strokes. He ended up finishing ahead of just four players in the 156-man field—three of whom withdrew.
That week, McIlroy lost strokes in every major statistical category. Most shocking of all, his -2.87 strokes gained on approach was the worst of his entire PGA Tour career.
All of this suggests that beyond the physical struggles, McIlroy’s mental game might not be where it needs to be. Winning The Masters was supposed to lift a huge weight off his shoulders, opening the door for his best golf yet. Instead, it might be having the opposite effect.
Since completing the Grand Slam, McIlroy appears more focused on savoring the moment than on maintaining his competitive edge.
“I worked incredibly hard on my game from October last year all the way up until April,” McIlroy said Tuesday. “It was nice to see the fruits of my labor come to fruition and have everything happen.
“You have to enjoy that. You have to enjoy what you’ve just accomplished. I certainly feel like I’m still doing that, and I will continue to do that. At some point, you have to realize that there’s a little bit more golf left to play this season. … I think chasing a certain goal for the better part of a decade and a half—I think I’m allowed a little bit of time to relax. But here at Oakmont, I certainly can’t relax this week.”
That last sentence might be the most telling. Relaxation and Oakmont don’t go together—especially not during a U.S. Open. Unless McIlroy can flip the switch quickly, his Grand Slam hangover may continue through another major championship.